That's right.  I said NEVER.

I just don't think computer users as a group will ever get together and switch to Linux.  It's more of a social dynamic thing than a reflection on Linux as a viable platform.  For example, Google wasn't always the most popular search engine.  But there was no "year of Google" when everyone stopped using Alta Vista, Yahoo, and Excite and started "googling." 

The change to Google was gradual.  And so it will be with Linux. 

What's happening now is that average consumers are using Linux in devices like phones and PDAs and set-top boxes.  Some people are moving to Linux on the desktop, but they're mostly the techies and those who have techie friends.  Businesses are moving to Linux on the server.

As time goes on these "niche" Linux markets will accelerate in growth, consumer fear will be gone, and Linux will begin to squeeze out Windows on the desktop.  Once Linux gets 15% to 20% of the desktop market, the game will be over for MS.  MS will still be around but they won't matter.  Linux will be a large enough market that no one will be able to ignore Linux users.  At that point desktop apps and games will be released for Linux alongside their Windows equivalents.

When will Linux get that much market share on the desktop?  Possibly before 2010, which is when Microsoft plans to release the next version of Windows, Windows 7.  2010 may sound like an aggressive line in the sand for Linux, but you only have to look at the negativity surrounding Vista and the widespread lack of interest surrounding the latest release of Windows.  Linux development on the other hand is vibrant and alive.  Tech people seem genuinely excited about what Linux can do.